🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.